Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.767095 0.892525 1.031545 1.197001 1.388520 1.603215 1.862161
2025-02-02 0.593726 0.770307 0.987583 1.274344 1.642724 2.099996 2.710882
2025-02-09 0.487890 0.683909 0.943640 1.312448 1.822340 2.502287 3.478210
2025-02-16 0.410970 0.613657 0.898938 1.328884 1.959853 2.851554 4.207911
2025-02-23 0.350242 0.552448 0.852339 1.328211 2.063515 3.155999 4.902957
2025-03-02 0.300703 0.498250 0.805308 1.315591 2.141274 3.424120 5.569060
2025-03-09 0.263907 0.457417 0.771371 1.315574 2.233914 3.719919 6.307330
2025-03-16 0.225296 0.407301 0.714660 1.268826 2.241344 3.875747 6.830963
2025-03-23 0.214827 0.403654 0.734437 1.352695 2.477195 4.433398 8.094156
2025-03-30 0.187556 0.365821 0.689364 1.315485 2.494266 4.614257 8.715020
2025-04-06 0.163487 0.330443 0.643871 1.270846 2.490635 4.754846 9.274448
2025-04-13 0.143341 0.299771 0.603080 1.229321 2.486464 4.891407 9.837860
2025-04-20 0.132356 0.286348 0.594668 1.251584 2.611942 5.293238 10.974116
2025-04-27 0.128357 0.286918 0.614344 1.333380 2.867516 5.979250 12.762335
2025-05-04 0.120629 0.278371 0.614060 1.373261 3.040832 6.518736 14.312361
2025-05-11 0.111753 0.265994 0.603959 1.390448 3.167272 6.974294 15.736521
2025-05-18 0.102470 0.251340 0.586909 1.389744 3.253625 7.352723 17.034243
2025-05-25 0.093320 0.235702 0.565633 1.376549 3.309793 7.670620 18.232225
2025-06-01 0.086038 0.223561 0.550855 1.376531 3.396038 8.064273 19.647541
2025-06-08 0.076549 0.204593 0.517522 1.327651 3.360127 8.173651 20.407424
2025-06-15 0.075773 0.207840 0.538561 1.415345 3.666934 9.119254 23.284554
2025-06-22 0.068262 0.192318 0.510895 1.376438 3.653218 9.294196 24.285027
2025-06-29 0.061170 0.176937 0.481666 1.329762 3.613884 9.401518 25.126997